Manual Trade Testing
Sunday, April 8th, 2007It is Easter Sunday so I had to take a break from code. I decided to run a few manual trade simulation tests using the application used for broker training below. This is not based on a rule based system. This is based on my personal intuition informed by continuously updated custom visualizations of price, in this case, the DCGRebalance1 Indicator.
These are my results
At $47 per trade I would drive my clients into a $28 loss on average per trade after I charge the Solid Gold Financial Services standard fee of $75 per trade. When using the manual trade testing simulator below we only have the technical analysis version of DCGRebalance1 as an indicator. As you can see, we are trading consistently above chance but when limited to the information coming from a purely auto-correlation or technical-analysis approach we are limited to a barely above chance method.
One needs to have a cause and effect relationship as part of their trading methodology and technical analysis alone does not provide this kind of information.